Mexico pumped a lot of fruit into the United States during the first quarter of the year setting the stage for a total annual volume that could eclipse 2015 numbers. Last year Mexico sent 1.77 billion pounds to that U.S. markets with total consumption approaching 2.2 billion pounds.

According to data on the Hass Avocado Board website, during the first 12 weeks of 2016, Mexico shipped about 525 million pounds of avocados to the U.S. market compared with about a 425 million pounds for the same period in 2015.

“That’s 25 percent more fruit,” said Gary Caloroso, director of marketing for the Giumarra Cos., who works from the firm’s Ventura, CA, facility, where it has one of its two California avocado packingsheds.Gary Caloroso

That volume of fruit has created somewhat of a downward pressure on the avocado market with conventional fruit selling for about $25 per carton in late March — significantly less than last year.

During the first 12 weeks of the year, Mexico sent an average of about 43 million pounds per week to the U.S. market, with a high of 58 million pounds in late January as the Super Bowl approached and a low of 27 million pounds in late March. In 2015, the high water mark in the first quarter was a 51 million-pound week. In 2015, shipments averaged about 35 million pounds.

This tremendous volume has delayed the California deal a bit. Rob Wedin, vice president of fresh sales and marketing for Calavo Growers Inc. in Santa Paula, CA, said that in the first quarter of 2015 California sent about 18 percent of what would be its total annual volume to market. This year, California’s crop is about one-third larger than last year, but in the first quarter volume was down in both numbers and percentage. Only 9 percent of the projected annual volume for this year went to market in those first three months.

As the calendar was turning to April, Wedin said more and more West Coast retailers, especially those in California, were transitioning to avocados from the Golden State. Speaking March 29, he expected a spike in weekly sales from California to hit in April, with close to peak shipments continuing well into June, and significant shipments throughout the summer.

HAB estimates that California will ship about 16 million pounds of avocados each week for the April-May time slot, with just a slight reduction in June.  

With a crop at or near 390 million pounds, 10 million or more pounds should be shipped each week during the four months from April through July. California should continue to have good volume through August with a fair amount of avocados in early September as well. And there will be some California avocados in the marketplace in October and November, especially from the most northern production areas of the state.

As the California volume declines, the geographic region covered tends to shrink with California itself consuming the vast majority of its own fruit.

Caloroso said Giumarra has customers all over the country that are partial to California fruit during the summer months, but he said how much fruit is shipped out of state is a function of the market and freight rates.

“Especially around the fourth of July, we find a lot of retailers [all over the country] stressing an American theme that want to feature California avocados,” said Caloroso.

Wedin said the slow start to California shipments has led to increased sizing of the fruit. Moving forward, he expects plenty of fruit is all size categories.

Caloroso said the “quality was fantastic” on the California fruit being packed in late March. “It looks great and eats great.”

Wedin said Calavo initially believed that the California estimate of 390 million pounds was a bit high, but with the increase in fruit size, he said that number might be reached after all.

What makes record annual consumption of avocados seem highly likely is that besides the increase in California for the year and Mexico for the first quarter, Wedin said it appears that Mexico still has a lot of fruit left on its trees to continue strong shipments through the spring.  

Shipments from Mexico tend to decline in the April-May-June time slot as shipments of the 2015-16 crop come to an end. Typically, the first avocados from crop year 2016-17 are shipped in July with weekly shipments from Mexico being at their lowest level of the year in the late spring-early summer time frame.

The Calavo executive said Mexican growers were meeting in late March to assess how much of the 2015-16 crop was still on the trees. Rumors were that the volume remaining was greater than what had earlier been estimated.

Earlier in the year, HAB projected that Mexico would send about 360 million pounds of fruit to the U.S. market during the second quarter (April-June) of the calendar year, which is the fourth quarter of their season.

Not factored into the situation at all is the potential opening up and certification of packingsheds in other Mexican states.

Currently, only packingsheds in the state of Michoacán, where the bulk of Mexico’s avocados are grown, have been certified as being able to ship avocados to the United States.

However, the protocol has been established for other Mexican states to join in, and now it is only a question of when and not if.

Jalisco has packingsheds that ship fruit to other countries and is the most logical first benefactor of the expanded shipping region. Jalisco’s production more closely mirrors that from California, and thus it could have an impact this summer if approval is granted soon.

While no one is stating when that will occur, many expected that it already would have happened, so it’s not a stretch to think certification of the sheds could come later this spring in time for some summer shipments.